about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.
Click here for a great translation site called reverso.net. I used it to look up the French word "partout" which I thought meant "everywhere" but since the word was in different context, I used reverso.
It's a great site because it provides multiple examples of the words in different contexts, and example sentences provided by native speakers so you can get a better idea about the nuances that exist in any language, as well as contemporary context. It also gives you an audio of a native speaker speaking the word. Hella cool.
I use this site when I read the French newspaper Le Monde.
It's a good idea to pay attention to the rest of the world, because we are very insulated (if not isolated) by the syndication of the American media. Sinclair news in particular has been buying up local media stations (especially in the South and mid-west) in order to squeeze the dissemination of news into propaganda. They want to keep you stupid and distracted by culture wars so they can hijack the truth and seed the government with apparachiks for the un-enlightened billionaires that fund their mouth-pieces. Thankfully there does exist enlightened billionaires as a counter-force, but let's look at this with eyes wide open. This is a fight for our democracy and the heritage of the US Constitution.
So I read Le Monde, look at the BBC, and some reliable blogs for information on the world.
Right now for instance, in France, there is a huge debate about the use of spraying diluted ammonia all over the well traversed city streets in various towns of France, and in particular Paris. Proponents of this argument say that's what was done in China and South Korea. One of the prefects of Paris is instigating a fight with the Mayor of Paris over the matter, and the Mayor got the national institute of Health involved -- l’Agence régionale de santé (ARS) or "Regional Agency of Health". Accordingly, the director of ARS, responded in an email to the Mayor of Paris
« L’aspersion de javel ou autre désinfectant est inutile tout en étant dangereuse pour l’environnement »
-- the spraying of ammonia or other disinfectant is not effective all the while being dangerous for the environment.
Dans son courriel, l’ARS met en avant d’autres solutions, plus classiques et moins coûteuses. Elle conseille de maintenir « le nettoyage des rues, avec les matériels et les équipements de protection individuelle habituels », et « de se laver les mains dès le retour à domicile ».
-- in the email, ARS put up other solutions, more traditional and less costly. The agency advised to continue cleaning/sweeping [probably by steam] the streets wearing the protective equipement and materials worn by individuals AND to wash your hands when returning home.
Jumped by 37 cases in one day. The a value is 3.41021 and the b value is 0.136989. The percentage rate is going down, but the a value is going up too.
The dashed red line is the linear rate over 5 days beginning on 27 March 2020. The rate of that line was 29.5 cases per day, so adding more than 29.5 cases a day indicates exponential growth.
I included a regression to a bell curve -- y = ae^b(x-c)^2, with parameters a,b, and c. The c value is the predicted peak, which the model says will come in 6 days. The a value is the peak, which the model says is 561 cases. The b value affects the horizontal spread of the bell curve. The model has it as -.0058. The curve widens the smaller the b value.
However, I would caution against reading too much into the bell curve regression because the number of cases is still rising exponentially. Since 26 March 2020 the rates of increase per day have been 29, 32, 34, 23, and 37 -- gradually getting bigger.
Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:
COVID-19 cases are exploding in Santa Clara county (San Jose) which will probably top 1,000 today. You really should add San Francisco and San Mateo counties together (the two counties are highly integrated -- just like Brooklyn and Queens) and so that will also probably top 1,000 before the end of this week. San Mateo county just jumped up 79 cases in one day.
This is mind-blowing.
Tuesday, 31 March 2020 at 21h 38m 42s
Chris Cuomo has COVID-19
This brings it home. CNN news host Chris Cuomo has contracted COVID-19
Tuesday, 31 March 2020 at 9h 23m 26s
Update on SF Coronavirus cases
The number of cases according to the SF Department of Public Health increased by 23.
The a value is of the model is now 2.62915. The b value is 0.145914. Which is good news. If you click below you will see that since 27 March 2020, the slope of the trend has slowed slightly, with the curve bending to the right of the 3/29 Prediction of 500 cases. However, it's highly probable that we will have 500 cases by Thursday or Friday.
Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:
7,026 = 397×2.62915×(1+0.145914)^14
18,230 = 397×2.62915×(1+0.145914)^21
Notice that when compared with the previous estimates these numbers are still increasing. It's looking like we might have 20,000 cases by the 21st of April. Will we get to the peak by then? Good question.
Monday, 30 March 2020 at 19h 41m 50s
Duc Cong Vuong MD
Why the death rates of Coronavirus are bigger than 1% -- which is already 10 times higher than the seasonal flu.
Monday, 30 March 2020 at 13h 18m 3s
SF Update on COVID-19 cases
The a value is 1.90652. The b value is 0.157125.
Over the last 3 days the increases from the previous day were +29, +32, & +34 -- which is not a constant rate of increase, hence still exponential. The rate of increase of new cases does appear to be stabilizing between 15 and 16 percent per day, but the a value is also bending above 1 (the reciprocal of which is 52%) -- which means we potentially have 48% of the people who have COVID-19 in the city unaware and not known.
Keep in mind that there is a 3 week duration of even milder versions of the disease, and a possible 5 or 7 day period when you are contagious but don't have obvious symptoms.
The prediction of the model from Sunday, 29 March is now left of the model trend (one day later), which does indicate a slowing down of the rate of increase. But we will have to see what happens over the next week.
Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:
5,500 = 374×1.90652×(1+0.157125)^14
15,279 = 374×1.90652×(1+0.157125)^21
Jumping above 15,000 by mid-April.
Sunday, 29 March 2020 at 14h 15m 26s
Click here for a site that runs a model which predicts how many people will die in each state with various measures enacted (or not) for each state.
Here is California according to the modeling. Holy Shit ! Peaking at 18 May at 344,000 hospital beds at the worse case scenario (assuming shelter in place) and 12,000 hospital beds at the best case scenario (again, assuming shelter in place).
Thanks to the political decisions by Florida governor DeSantis, Florida is fucked unless they shelter in place for 2 months.
The group that does this is upfront about their model, and it's limitations if that's something you want to look up. However, the sobering look at these models indicate how important it is for shelter-in-place combined with social-distancing matters.
Thanks to Bay Area and State leaders, California has significantly undercut the trajectory of this disease, to the point that California is now projected to have "only" 21,000 deaths -- much less than a dozen states who have slow-walked or done nothing and have less population than California !!!
(CLICK THE IMAGE BELOW FOR FULL-SIZE)
California, by far the largest state, is over 12% of the population of the United States. Any state that loses more people to COVID-19 than California—despite the state being an early foothold for the disease—has so mismanaged its response that its leadership deserves to be tar and feathered. That the states above still haven’t taken this disease seriously enough to issue shelter-in-place orders is downright criminal. Hundreds of thousands of people might die as a result.
Asked at Davos by a CNBC reporter, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”
Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.”
Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.”
Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”
Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.”
Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.”
Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.”
Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” (to Sean Hannity)
Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.”
Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.”
Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.”
March 2 – “It’s very mild.”
March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.”
March 6 – (visiting the CDC) “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe.
March 6: (same availability) “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.”
March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.”
March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 16 – (asked to rate his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.”
March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
The number of COVID-19 cases increased by 32, after increasing by 29, and 56 over the past 3 days. The a value is now 1.44545 and the b value is 0.166955. The trend is still 16.7% increase, doubling every 4.48 days. Which means we will probably have more than 500 cases by Wednesday, 1 April 2020.
Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:
4,268 = 340×1.44545×(1+0.166955)^14
12,578 = 340×1.44545×(1+0.166955)^21
Notice how the 2 and 3 week predictions have been jumping. The model jumped from 10,400 to nearly 12,600 in ONE DAY !!!
My aggregate exponential model (I take the integral of the derivative from 0 to double the current number of days) is indicating that at a minimum, 176,400 people will get the Coronavirus over the next 33 days in San Francisco. And this assumes we are reaching the plateau now -- a big assumption.
Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 16h 26m 18s
The SIR Model of disease spread. Susceptible, Infected, Recovered . S+I+R. Also Recovered does not necessarily mean alive.