about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.
From Laurie Garrett, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist who wrote "Ebola: story of an outbreak."
As President Trump starts to reopen the country, Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer Laurie Garrett predicts the pandemic will last at least 36 months. Meanwhile, a top government vaccine specialist says he was forced from his job after he resisted the administrationís promotion of untested treatments for COVID-19. Garrett predicted the pandemic. In an extended interview, she discusses whatís next.
Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 9h 56m 16s
A map of COVID cases in SF
Here is the map of where I live, San Francisco. My district is in the 5 to 10 cases per 10,000 residents right now. Notice how every district of the city has cases.
Click here for a great info-graphic/story from the New York Times about the number of excess deaths currently in each state of the United States. Not every state has a high rate of excess deaths, and some states have below the average deaths during the same time period -- January to April.
California is one of the states that has a lot of excess deaths. A total of 1,100 excess deaths. Here is what the graph of California looks like
[SOURCE:†Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-Katz†|†New York Times†|†5 May 2020]
Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 8h 22m 0s
The Stock Market is not the economy
Is anyone interested in trying to grasp how the stock market can be increasing even though the economy has hit the skids and the unofficial unemployment rate nears 20%? Here is a good article in morningstar.
While most businesses are at best struggling, a happy few are booming. This fact is not only reflected in the performance gap between the large- and small-company indexes, but also by the disparity in fortunes between public and private companies. Because publicly traded firms operate nationally (if not internationally), they tend to be technologically capable and therefore positioned to compete during social distancing. Local businesses, in contrast, are likelier to be brick-and-mortar affairs that are hampered by movement restrictions.
In other words, that millions of workers have been released by local businesses--or national firms in industries that have been devastated, such as airlines and hotels--is relatively immaterial to the stock marketís leaders. As long the layoffs donít lead to a ripple effect, wherein the broader economic woes affect their revenues, their stocks quite logically can rise even as other businesses fall.
[SOURCE:†John Rekenthaler†|†Morningstar†|†4 May 2020]
Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 8h 6m 18s
This is not the flu part 2
This is confirmed deaths, not cdc calculations to try and estimate the under-counted deaths. That's called hard data.
It looks like we've had roughly the same number of confirmed deaths from COVID in two months than ALL the flu deaths COMBINED over the last 7 years.
And we are only in the first 15 minutes of a two hour film.
Tuesday, 5 May 2020 at 15h 29m 0s
Another view of Planet of the Humans
This is from Just Have A Think, put together by a British fellow whose name escapes, but offers quite insightful and scientifically profound videos on the latest science and technology. So what does he think about the recent "Planet of the Humans" film?
On the 50th Anniversary of the first ever Earth Day, Jeff Gibbs and Michael Moore released a documentary film free on You Tube. The film is called Planet of the Humans, and it proved quite popular. This week we review the movie and consider its implications for climate activism.
Tuesday, 5 May 2020 at 15h 24m 13s
Today a man from near Springfield, Illinois called in on the Thom Hartmann show near the end of the show, who was offended because Thom brought up that a lot of (if not all) of the anti-shutdown protests are being sponsored/assisted by right-wing billionaire backed groups -- AND are also bringing out people wearing Nazi symbols.
The caller was only upset about feeling like he was called a Nazi because he supported Trump.
Thom allowed the man a lot of liberty to speak, but the man had no rebuttal when Thom asked him why he isn't doing anything about the Nazi's in his party if he is so offended at feeling like he was called a Nazi. To which the man said (NOTE: I have to paraphrase because I heard this more than 3 hours ago, and there is no recording I can refer to)--
Caller:"Well, all I heard was that I was being called a Nazi. I don't know anyone around here who supports Nazi's and I know a lot of Trump supporters."
Thom: "Well then why don't you do something about getting rid of the Nazi's in your party. Why don't you do like Justin Amash in Michigan who is running as a Libertarian. Or do what Jeff Flake in Arizona did, refuse to join the party until the support for Nazi's are removed. There is a place for principle'd conservatism. Why do you want to be in a party that support's Nazi's?"
Caller:"Well I am a principle'd conservative. But I just don't like being called a Nazi just because I support Donald Trump."
Thom: "But Trump is supporting them. He calls them Very Fine People. He did that at Chancellorville, and also recently when he referred to the Nazi's in Lansing as Fine People."
Caller:"Well, I haven't heard about that."
Thom: "Go read his tweets. It's not just once. It's all the time. What is it that Trump says that you support? What does he say that you like?
Caller: "Well ... he speaks his mind, and ... he's putting America First."
The conversation continued for another minute, but that last statement is what struck me.
I'll try and add more to this post later. I want to elaborate on the abject irrationality of that last statement, because everything Trump and his minions have done has effectively been a slow destruction of both the social fabric (remember the NFL players taking a knee) and the federal system of government (like prioritizing ending epa rules for polluters and car emissions as the first order of decisions during a pandemic). I don't think that actually puts "America First" but the power of the meme is so strong that this caller from Illinois uses it to cloak his inability to see that Trump is inciting National Socialist extremists to "liberate" states from public health decisions made in order to manage the effects and spread of a pandemic.
Don Lemon is good. He completely utterly demolishes Trump. "By the way, what is it about President Obama that gets under your skin."
Monday, 4 May 2020 at 17h 11m 14s
The Logarithmic Scale
I am currently teaching my pre-calc students Logarithmic and Exponential Functions.
One thing that a lot of people (students being younger people) have trouble understanding is the scale of compounded percentage rates of increase -- or exponential growth. So when numbers (or data values from a population being measured) grow, the idea that something looking small in the immediate short-term might become huge in the long term doesn't register.
Think of 50% growth, or adding half as much to the total as you have now. Which is a 1.5 multiplier. 1, 1.5, 2.25, 3.375, 5.0625, 7.5938, ....
Let's say this is a rate per day. If you start with 2, how many days will you think it takes to reach 1 million? Less than 36 days, or more than 36 days?
Precisely 32.36373 days. At which point 50% of 1 million will add another 500,000 towards the day after.
Even if the rate of increase was just 10%, going from 2 to 1 million would take 137.66 days (roughly 2/3rds of the year -- 8 months).
We've gone from "just 2 cases" ("known" cases) of COVID-19 in latter January 2020 to 1.2 million on May 4th, 94 days later.
Update: honestly I think those first 2 cases were actually in December 2019. Enough said.
I was inspired here by a blog from a law professor who assessed the exponential intuition of his students in a different manner.
A few months ago, I gave my law students a quick quiz, which you can take yourself if you want (I emphasized to them it was anonymous and therefore not subject to grading, in case youíre wondering about exam pressure).
Here it is. They were given 30 seconds total to answer the two questions (Note that at the time Mike Bloomberg had a reported net worth of $64 billion).
Todayís date is February 20, 2020.
One million seconds from now, the date will be March 2, 2020
One billion seconds from now, the date will be September 23, _____.
64 billion seconds from now, the date will be March 25, _____
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
The mode for answers to the first question was 2020 (9 of 41 answers). The median was 2024.
The mode for answers to the second question was 2021 (8 of 41 answers). The median was 2089.
Iím convinced that an important factor in the relative lack of serious social dissent against our plutocracy is that weíre just not very good at math.
One million seconds equals 11.6 days. Obviously one billion seconds is a lot more than that, but how much more? Honestly if I had had to give a snap impressionistic answer to this question I probably would have said something like a year and a half. I mean thatís an immensely longer span of time than eleven days after all. The correct answer is 31.7 years.
Even more interesting, to me, was the wildly incorrect answers that people gave to the second question even in the context of their answers to the first one. For example, some people who gave roughly accurate answers to the first question ó putting one billion seconds 25 years in the future for example ó would then put 64 billion seconds something like 120 years in the future (31.7 years times 64 is 2028.8 years).
Even highly intelligent and extensively educated people [insert lawyer jokes here] have a great deal of trouble grasping what a thousand times more than a million actually means in purely mathematical ó let alone social and economic ó terms. As for what 138.5 times more than a thousand times more than a million is ó fuggitaboudit.
[SOURCE:†Paul Campos†|†lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com†|†4 May 2020]