frankilin roosevelt

It's not about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.

Check out my old  Voice of the People page.

Gino Napoli
San Francisco, California
High School Math Teacher

Loyalty without truth
is a trail to tyranny.

a middle-aged
George Washington

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Wednesday, 1 April 2020 at 19h 5m 58s

Update on SF Coronavirus cases

Jumped by 37 cases in one day. The a value is 3.41021 and the b value is 0.136989. The percentage rate is going down, but the a value is going up too.

The dashed red line is the linear rate over 5 days beginning on 27 March 2020. The rate of that line was 29.5 cases per day, so adding more than 29.5 cases a day indicates exponential growth.

I included a regression to a bell curve -- y = ae^b(x-c)^2, with parameters a,b, and c. The c value is the predicted peak, which the model says will come in 6 days. The a value is the peak, which the model says is 561 cases. The b value affects the horizontal spread of the bell curve. The model has it as -.0058. The curve widens the smaller the b value.

However, I would caution against reading too much into the bell curve regression because the number of cases is still rising exponentially. Since 26 March 2020 the rates of increase per day have been 29, 32, 34, 23, and 37 -- gradually getting bigger.

Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:

8,930 = 434×3.41021×(1+0.136989)^14

21,935 = 434×3.41021×(1+0.136989)^21

While you are here, check out this map of the bay area (it's at the bottom of the page).

COVID-19 cases are exploding in Santa Clara county (San Jose) which will probably top 1,000 today. You really should add San Francisco and San Mateo counties together (the two counties are highly integrated -- just like Brooklyn and Queens) and so that will also probably top 1,000 before the end of this week. San Mateo county just jumped up 79 cases in one day.

This is mind-blowing.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020 at 4h 38m 42s

Chris Cuomo has COVID-19

This brings it home. CNN news host Chris Cuomo has contracted COVID-19

Tuesday, 31 March 2020 at 16h 23m 26s

Update on SF Coronavirus cases

The number of cases according to the SF Department of Public Health increased by 23.

The a value is of the model is now 2.62915. The b value is 0.145914. Which is good news. If you click below you will see that since 27 March 2020, the slope of the trend has slowed slightly, with the curve bending to the right of the 3/29 Prediction of 500 cases. However, it's highly probable that we will have 500 cases by Thursday or Friday.

Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:

7,026 = 397×2.62915×(1+0.145914)^14

18,230 = 397×2.62915×(1+0.145914)^21

Notice that when compared with the previous estimates these numbers are still increasing. It's looking like we might have 20,000 cases by the 21st of April. Will we get to the peak by then? Good question.

Tuesday, 31 March 2020 at 2h 41m 50s

Duc Cong Vuong MD

Why the death rates of Coronavirus are bigger than 1% -- which is already 10 times higher than the seasonal flu.

Monday, 30 March 2020 at 20h 18m 3s

SF Update on COVID-19 cases

The a value is 1.90652. The b value is 0.157125.

Over the last 3 days the increases from the previous day were +29, +32, & +34 -- which is not a constant rate of increase, hence still exponential. The rate of increase of new cases does appear to be stabilizing between 15 and 16 percent per day, but the a value is also bending above 1 (the reciprocal of which is 52%) -- which means we potentially have 48% of the people who have COVID-19 in the city unaware and not known.

Keep in mind that there is a 3 week duration of even milder versions of the disease, and a possible 5 or 7 day period when you are contagious but don't have obvious symptoms.

The prediction of the model from Sunday, 29 March is now left of the model trend (one day later), which does indicate a slowing down of the rate of increase. But we will have to see what happens over the next week.

Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:

5,500 = 374×1.90652×(1+0.157125)^14

15,279 = 374×1.90652×(1+0.157125)^21

Jumping above 15,000 by mid-April.

Sunday, 29 March 2020 at 21h 15m 26s


Click here for a site that runs a model which predicts how many people will die in each state with various measures enacted (or not) for each state.

Here is California according to the modeling. Holy Shit ! Peaking at 18 May at 344,000 hospital beds at the worse case scenario (assuming shelter in place) and 12,000 hospital beds at the best case scenario (again, assuming shelter in place).

Thanks to the political decisions by Florida governor DeSantis, Florida is fucked unless they shelter in place for 2 months.

The group that does this is upfront about their model, and it's limitations if that's something you want to look up. However, the sobering look at these models indicate how important it is for shelter-in-place combined with social-distancing matters.

Click here for the place where I discovered this information.

Thanks to Bay Area and State leaders, California has significantly undercut the trajectory of this disease, to the point that California is now projected to have "only" 21,000 deaths -- much less than a dozen states who have slow-walked or done nothing and have less population than California !!!


California, by far the largest state, is over 12% of the population of the United States. Any state that loses more people to COVID-19 than California—despite the state being an early foothold for the disease—has so mismanaged its response that its leadership deserves to be tar and feathered. That the states above still haven’t taken this disease seriously enough to issue shelter-in-place orders is downright criminal. Hundreds of thousands of people might die as a result.

[SOURCE: Kos | Daily Kos | 29 March 2020]

Sunday, 29 March 2020 at 19h 3m 24s

Donald Trump's own words

Asked at Davos by a CNBC reporter, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.”

Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.”

Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”

Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”

Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.”

Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.”

Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.”

Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” (to Sean Hannity)

Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.”

Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.”

Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.”

March 2 – “It’s very mild.”

March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.”

March 6 – (visiting the CDC) “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe.

March 6: (same availability) “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.”

March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.”

March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

March 16 – (asked to rate his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.”

March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

[SOURCE: Al Franken | 25 March 2020]

Sunday, 29 March 2020 at 19h 7m 31s

Daily SF Coronavirus cases update

The number of COVID-19 cases increased by 32, after increasing by 29, and 56 over the past 3 days. The a value is now 1.44545 and the b value is 0.166955. The trend is still 16.7% increase, doubling every 4.48 days. Which means we will probably have more than 500 cases by Wednesday, 1 April 2020.

Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:

4,268 = 340×1.44545×(1+0.166955)^14

12,578 = 340×1.44545×(1+0.166955)^21

Notice how the 2 and 3 week predictions have been jumping. The model jumped from 10,400 to nearly 12,600 in ONE DAY !!!

My aggregate exponential model (I take the integral of the derivative from 0 to double the current number of days) is indicating that at a minimum, 176,400 people will get the Coronavirus over the next 33 days in San Francisco. And this assumes we are reaching the plateau now -- a big assumption.

Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 23h 26m 18s

Mathematical Modeling

The SIR Model of disease spread. Susceptible, Infected, Recovered . S+I+R. Also Recovered does not necessarily mean alive.

Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 20h 10m 40s

GM is not responsible for governing this country

The Preznit apparently thinks grand-standing and playing politics is considered leadership in a crisis. Look how he baselessly (without substance) denegrates and insults Washington State and Michigan Governors ... because they are Democrats.

What about those private firms who are supposedly now incentivized to produce Medical supplies? The main manufacturer of swabs is in Italy, a country besieged and unable to export at the same levels as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Tests also require a lot of supplies. They require the swabs. They require reagents. They require people to administer the tests. And those people require personal protective equipment or PPE ... This ripples through our supply chain... If you have a President who is hesitent or reluctant to mobilize the Defense Production Act [that] would mandate companies to pivot and create supplies ... you know we are defenseless.