It's not
about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.
Latest SF Coronavirus update from the SF Dept of Public Health
Jumped up 54 from yesterday. I waited a few days since my last update because these crude models that I am using aren't very predicative and can fluctuate based upon incoming data.
Click here if you want to read an excellent article in fivethirtyeight from late March on how difficult statistical modeling can be.
Anyway, in my exponential model the b value has been decreasing, and is now .0944122, which means the rate of increase has been decreasing and is now less than 9.5%. The a value has however shot up and is now 12.7004. Which implies that there are 12.7 times more positives than we have actually measured/tested. So there could be upwards of 8,585 (12.7 times 676) positive cases.
I am keeping data for San Francisco, Alabama, California, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, New York State, and Tennessee, for the sake of comparison. Here are the current b values:
Percentage of increase based upon current COVID-19 positive cases as of 8 March 2020
San Francisco
9.44%
California
12.24%
Alabama
12.84%
Florida
13.68%
Kentucky
13.47%
Mississippi
11.99%
New York State
12.3%
Tennessee
12.56%
Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:
30,359 = 676×12.7004×(1+0.0944122)^14
57,090 = 676×12.7004×(1+0.0944122)^21
I am using an additional model, the sideways "S" curve. That's called a logistic model, or 1 over 1 plus the euler growth factor. It enables prediction to the plateau or "flattening out", and I am using it to compare the exponential to the linear (the dashed red line). So you might notice that this morning's SF Department of Public Health release of 54 more cases puts the trend above the linear and logistic but less than the exponential. The trend has been above the linear for the last 5 days.
The small bell curve on the bottom regresses the daily increases from the previous date (which was +54 today). That model gets down to plus 0.5 cases when x equals 75, or 32 days after today, which is 10 May 2020.
Monday, 6 April 2020 at 23h 21m 53s
Excellent discussion
From Dr. MarkAlain Dery, at Tulane Medical Center, on the Coronavirus.
Monday, 6 April 2020 at 22h 59m 18s
This is the Common Cold on Steroids
More communicable than the flu, and 10 to 15 (or more) times lethal.
At timestamp 45:20 Dr Gundry discusses the myths and misconceptions about the coronavirus.
Namely:
It is a virus from a bat. It is not a weaponized genetic virus created by a biomedical lab. This is a natural virus that has lived in bats for a very long time.
Getting this virus is not a death sentence. Currently, in the USA, the mortality rate is 1.4%
This is not like getting the flu. Coronavirus is more deadly, and more contagious.
There is no certainty whether this is a seasonal virus. Some nutritionists think the correlation might be more related to fluctuations in Vitamin D levels over the year due to levels of sunlight more than actual seasonal variation due to the virus. The cold virus is not a seasonal virus however.
The cold virus mutates rapidly, which is why there is no vaccine for the common cold. It looks like so far over the last 4 months the coronavirus mutates more slowly. If that is the case, then a vaccine can hopefully be developed. However, the flu vaccines are ongoing because the flu virus mutates. Long story short, it's too early to know for sure. We just don't know if people can catch this again, or if the rate of mutation will create regular future infections just like the common cold or flu virus.
Monday, 6 April 2020 at 19h 55m 11s
About science based decision making processes
Over-reacting to non-randomized studies based upon small sample sizes with elements of the study excluded from the analysis of the resulting data set?
Sounds like it's time to be Presidential and all that.
Click here for a video explaining evidenced-based decision making from Perry Wilson, M.D. at medscape.
Here is a great article at Statnews that dissects the limitations of the small-sample studies that are being touted as indicating "some benefit".
Keep in mind that there is a huge problem with testing if a certain drug shows benefits to people who have a disease, and that is how to measure the "severity', because people will improve regardless of what treatments are given. People survived the blood letting during the 1700's to remove "the vigors" from the body, but that didn't mean it was due to the treatment. So in any study using small samples, people can and do improve despite the treatments, which makes it difficult to say whether the improvement was enhanced by the treatment.
The scientific method is currently in the boxing ring with con-artists and a public relations political campaign. Who will win? Who should win?
Monday, 6 April 2020 at 5h 42m 42s
Con Artists
Enabling price gouging too.
Monday, 6 April 2020 at 5h 54m 55s
Debunking Myths
Epidemic expert Dr. Seema Yasmin helps debunk some common medical myths surrounding Covid-19. Will drinking water flush the virus out? Can you take ibuprofen? Will garlic prevent infection? Can you hold your breath to test if you have coronavirus?
Or from Ari Melber
Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 18h 20m 43s
From 4 March 2020
Dr. W. Ian Lipkin is an infectious disease expert at Columbia University who is fresh out of quarantine after traveling to China, where he was studying the coronavirus outbreak. The virus has now infected nearly 94,000 people around the world with more than 3,000 deaths. Today, Italy closed all schools as the country's death toll reached 107. In 2003 Dr. Lipkin helped Chinese authorities to combat SARS. He was also an adviser on the film "Contagion" — a thriller inspired by epidemics. Dr. Lipkin spoke to our Walter Isaacson.
Walter Isaacson is from New Orleans, and sits on the board of my alma mater, Tulane University.
Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 17h 21m 32s
Latest SF Coronavirus update from the SF Dept of Public Health
Up 39 from yesterday's public posting by the SF Department of Public Health. Up 32 from the day before, and plus 47 from the day before that. So we are up 71 over two days, and up 118 OVER 3 DAYS.
Currently the a value of the euler model is 7.96207 and the b value is 0.108954. The bell curve model has the width of one standard deviation interval equal to 13.96, or 14 days. So if this thing peaks and starts coming down, right now that is possible in 2 weeks. Not guaranteed, just possible, because the growth is still exponential - +47, +32, +39 over the last 3 days - even if the euler model's estimate of increase has now dropped below 11%.
Here are the model's updated 14 and 21 day predictions:
19,238 = 568×7.96207×(1+0.108954)^14
39,678 = 568×7.96207×(1+0.108954)^21
Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 3h 2m 17s
This was known on 13 February 2020
Though the coronavirus that originated from Wuhan, China has a lower fatality rate than SARS, it has proved far more contagious.
With an incubation of 14 days and evidence that COVID-19 can be passed on by asymptomatic individuals, experts say that the actual number of infected persons could be a lot more than what is being recorded.
Dr Leong Hoe Nam, who was infected with the SARS virus back in 2003, puts the estimate at 40 times the official statistics and said that the lockdown on cities in Hubei, while it may seem heartless, is the right move to take.
The adminstration knew, and they salivated profusely about how they could take advantage and achieve fascist nirvana.