frankilin roosevelt

It's not about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.

Check out my old  Voice of the People page.

Gino Napoli
San Francisco, California
High School Math Teacher

Loyalty without truth
is a trail to tyranny.

a middle-aged
George Washington

1350 POSTS

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Saturday, 21 March 2020 at 9h 18m 51s

San Francisco Positive cases is now 84

The San Francisco Department of Public Health updates every day at 9 am.

According to my updated Desmos exponential regression model, a = 2.51356 , b = .140833. The a value increased slightly, the b value is stabilizing. We might be crossing 100 cases by Sunday morning.

The rate of increase over the past 5 days is as follows: 11.6, 11.88, 13.9, 14.32, and 14.08.

The models current 14 and 21 day prediction of cases is as follows.

1,335 = 84×2.51356×(1+.140833)^14

3,359 = 84×2.51356×(1+.140833)^21

Friday, 20 March 2020 at 22h 43m 48s

Unbelieveable failure

But if you mention the "unbelievable failure" you get accused of "finger pointing". Because the time is not be partisan and blame and finger point, but to make tons of money on the side, and help pharmaceutical companies make money. Right?

Friday, 20 March 2020 at 20h 39m 13s

Slowing down exponential growth

Click here for a Press-Democrat story about why pandemic outbreaks spread exponentially

Friday, 20 March 2020 at 13h 41m 58s

Ignore the bs poll being promoted by ABC

Trust instead the gallup poll. Click here

Click here for the Gallup polls methodology. They use carefully culled telephone polls with at least a sample size of 1,000. Here is the BS ABC poll. And ..

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs‘ KnowledgePanel® March 18-19, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 512 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 5.0 points, including the design effect.

Margin of error is 5% and the sample size is only 512 adults. The sample size is also too small, and likely to be non-representative including the design effect.

I have no idea why the establishment idiots do this promoting of biased polls based upon small sample size. There are so many confounding factors from opinion polls because it depends upon both the structure and sequence of questions. That ABC poll could have asked a series of 9 questions before the 10th question that set up a favorable view of Mr. Trump, which would inflate the in favor rating.

I discount any poll that assumes to represent the views of a population any larger than 1 million by using a sample size less than 1,000. And by the way, 327,000 people is 0.1% of the US population.

Did ABC categorize the type of respondents to the overall known ratios of the larger population (Gender, age bracket, ethnic group, income bracket, etc...) ? Is that effectively done by a sample of size 512 for a population of 327 million (327,000,000)? Did Ipsos cull out of an original sample of 1,526 a sample that results in what was promoted? We have no idea. So why did ABC news promote this BS poll that is directly opposite what a more reliable and large sample size poll put out by the Gallup institute?

Friday, 20 March 2020 at 12h 49m 44s

Coronavirus compared to the Flu virus

Friday, 20 March 2020 at 12h 8m 48s

SF Update on cases

As of 9 am Friday 20 March 2020, there are 76 known cases of Covid-19 in San Francisco, according to the San Francisco Department of Public Health.

Click here for my updated exponential regression model on desmos.

Looks like San Francisco will hit 100+ cases in 2 days (by Sunday).

The rate of growth that the model has been predicting over the last few days has gone up : 11.6, 11.88, 13.9, and is now 14.32. The a value is 2.3954. Here are the current numbers over the next 2 or 3 weeks using the current a & b values obtained from the regression model.

1,186 = 76×2.3954×(1+.143258)^14

3,028 = 76×2.3954×(1+.143258)^21

These numbers may seem mild, but keep in mind we are in the early part of the trajectory so we don't really have a good estimate of the rate that the infectious disease is spreading. If the rate of increase is actually just 20%, after 3 weeks we get ..


.. if it is 25%


Almost 20,000 in 3 weeks. Again, that's why this is serious.

Thursday, 19 March 2020 at 16h 33m 12s

Incompetance at the top

Beginning at timestamp 2:08 and ending at timestamp 4:09

There is no supply [of ventilators] until June

The free market decided it didn't want to invest into short-term issues, despite the long-term costs to our economy and society.

Thursday, 19 March 2020 at 14h 32m 46s

Reliable information in times of crisis

During times of crisis it is more important than ever to know who can be relied upon for truthful honest information that is not doctored, colored, or edited for political calculations or reasons. Recently the Prezident has become so unable to perform these basic duties that news media outlets (including Fox news) have been skipping the live feeds of the Presidents news conferences and tuning into New York Governor Andrew Cuomo -- who is rising into the leadership role of this crisis.

Click here for a Mother Jones article.

Meanwhile the prezident keeps making statements at these press conferences saying things that his administration is doing that are not being done, coloring his administration's actions as something other than complete narcissistic incompetant denial, calling the virus a "chinese" virus despite the ignorant insensitivity of such a statement (it's a bat virus by the way which could have jumped to a human host anywhere in the world where bats are located) and pretending he didn't say things he did that are on tape and were seen by the American people not even 3 weeks ago.

Rather than taking charge and addressing the needs of our country, his people see this as a public relations management operation, an opportunity to pursue their overall agenda.

Here is a link I use to click on all of the relevant newspapers throughout the United States and world. You cannot rely on what is given to you on your twitter feed or mainstream media, even if it is high quality. Some of these newspaper/media outlets are better than others by a very large margin, but I'll let you make those discerned views on your own.

Thursday, 19 March 2020 at 10h 10m 22s

SF Infections jump from 51 to 70

Click here for my regression model update. a = 2.59 b = 0.138954 which projects into 1,120.68 over 2 weeks (using the method I explained in an earlier post) AND 2,786.29 after 3 weeks.

1,120.68 = 70×2.59×(1+.138954)^14

2,786.29 = 70×2.59×(1+.138954)^21

That may not seem like a lot, but that cannot include the ancillary infections that are occuring because people are asymptomatic, so we don't really have good data on the rate of infection. That's why the growth rate of the model fluctuates, now at 13.89% increase per day. If the latest number (70) is actually 75, the model jumps to a 14.7% increase per day.

9:16 a.m. San Francisco now has 70 confirmed COVID-19 cases: San Francisco announced there are 70 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city, an increase from 51 on Wednesday, according to the Department of Health.

[SOURCE: San Francisco Chronicle | 19 March 2020]

Wednesday, 18 March 2020 at 12h 33m 48s

I am updating an exponential model of the data from SF

Here is the latest desmos update from San Francisco.

There were 8 more cases of COVID-19 released at 9:58 am today by the City Department of Public Health. The model is now 3.685 times the number of cases with an 11.88% rate of increase per day ... from 3.82 and 11.6 as of yesterday.

Here is an image

So for instance, running those numbers, I get 1,986 infected over another 3 weeks. Here's how. 1 + .1188 = the growth factor. Raise that to the 21st power (3 weeks) and multiply 51 (the current number). Then multiply 3.685 which the model estimates as the number of unknown infected cases. That's how I got 1,986.

The above analysis comes with huge reservations because the lack of testing leaves us blind. We have no idea how many unknown carriers are out there. Hence that multiple of 3.685 from the model is not reliable. If it is actaully 5, then we arrive at 3,564 cases after 3 weeks, a lot of whom likely infected other people over that duration. Currently it appears the doubling rate is over 5 days, which implies 24,821 cases over another 2 weeks. Full disclosure: I got that by doing 2 raised to the 14/5 power and multiplying to 3,564.

Once you start doubling big numbers over 5 or less days (like what happened in Italy) we got a real health crisis even if the mortality rate is between 1 and 2 percent. If half of the 350 million US population contracts this, 1% of 175 million is 1.75 million people dead. That is more in one year than all of the combined total casualties of war for the United States dating back to the Revolutionary war.

Poof ... mind is blown.