frankilin roosevelt

It's not about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.



Check out my old  Voice of the People page.


Gino Napoli
San Francisco, California
High School Math Teacher

jonsdarc@mindspring.com




Loyalty without truth
is a trail to tyranny.

a middle-aged
George Washington



ARCHIVES
1468 POSTS
LATEST ITEM

June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
September 2016
August 2016
May 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
September 2014
August 2014
May 2014
March 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
August 2012
July 2012
April 2012
March 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
August 2010
July 2010
March 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
August 2009
July 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
June 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
June 2005
May 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004

Thursday, 16 April 2020 at 22h 18m 23s

Accounting Identity

Click here for a discussion of the sectorial balances in an economy.

(S-I)+(T-G)=(X-M)

Or ...

S = I + G - T + (X-M)


which implies that deficits at home (private and government) result in current account or trade deficits, and thus borrowing from abroad.

The sectoral balances equation above says that total private savings S minus private investment I has to equal the public deficit G minus taxes T plus net exports X minus imports M where net exports represent the net savings of non-residents.

Another way of saying this is that total private savings S is equal to private investment I plus the public deficit G minus taxes T plus net exports X minus imports M, where net exports represent the net savings of non-residents.

All these relationships (equations) hold as a matter of accounting and not matters of opinion.




@ timestamp 3:40 It is impossible for the private sector and the US government to both run a surplus. It can't happen


Thursday, 16 April 2020 at 20h 44m 31s

The unemployment rate in April




[SOURCE:  | BarryRitholz | 16 April 2020]

And we are not even half way through April.


Thursday, 16 April 2020 at 19h 0m 34s

To be (smart) or not to be (smart)

This week was the week the crazy showed up on various state legislature buildings and touted freedom with guns on their shoulders. Oh joy.


As Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan faces harsh criticism from Republicans for her stringent stay-at-home order, hundreds of protesters on Wednesday lined streets in Lansing, the state capital, with some chanting, “Recall Whitmer.”

The protest, called “Operation Gridlock,” was organized by the Michigan Conservative Coalition and the Michigan Freedom Fund, a DeVos family-linked conservative group. The Facebook event called on attendees to “TAKE ACTION IN LANSING“ but “Not on foot — STAY in your VEHICLES!“

But many of the demonstrators, some waving Trump campaign flags, ignored the organizers‘ pleas and flooded the streets, according to NBC news. Protesters chanted, “Open up Michigan,“ and at one point erupted into a “Lock her up“ refrain in reference to Whitmer


[SOURCE: Myad Ward | Politico | 15 April 2020]

A member of the President's cabinet is part of a plutocratic fund that sponsors and pays for political reactions against the opposition party. Hmm.

What happens when the workers who go back to work get sick, which disrupts the supply chain? Various processing plants across the country are already shutting down due to the contagion because hundreds of workers are getting sick at once. What will happen with foreign trade and airplane travel when other nations know the United States isn't controlling the spread of the virus? What will happen when we "open" the economy and small businesses go bankrupt because their customers aren't showing up because of the fear of the virus. You can't just wave a magic wand.

However, these Rethuglicans are all about manipulating the lower classes into righteous uprisings. All of them sponsored by an organization funded by wealthy donors to pay people to get on buses that bring them to state capitals so they can stand around holding signs (and guns) .

I really hope that none of these sad fools don't contract the virus. Despite their ignorance, this shit is for real, and I wouldn't wish this on anyone. The death rate you see is an under count. A lot of people are dying in their homes, or die from a heart attack or kidney failure. A better measure is to measure the current number of deaths against the average expected deaths over the last 5 years. When people do that, in Spain, England, and the Netherlands, they get anywhere between 37% and 57% of deaths being accounted for by the official COVID-19 deaths.

That's anywhere between a multiple of 2.7 and 1.75 more deaths than are being listed as official deaths due to COVID-19. So if we have officially 34,000 deaths, that means there is a high degree of probability that the actual number of deaths is in between 91,800 & 59,500.


First, the United Kingdom has released provisional data through the 14 week of the year – March 30 through April 5th. For England and Wales, the excess mortality over the five year average was 6,082 whereas the total COVID19 death toll was 3,475. In this case, the official toll accounts for only 57% of the recorded excess mortality. A bit higher than the rule of thumb but close. (Oddly the UK dataset refers to this as the week ending April 3rd, despite Week 14 ending on April 5th. Regardless, the numbers and percentages are the same whichever seven days are being counted.)

Second, the Netherlands’ National Institute for Public Health and the Environment has produced this report which notes that excess mortality in the country from March 26th through April 1st was “approximately twice as high as the COVID-19 deaths reported to RIVM in the same week.”

Third, I’ve previously noted some data from Spain. Here I noted data from Madrid in the second half of March, that was roughly double. But there’s also data from March 10th-16th. In that case the 192 official COVID19 fatalities account for only 37% of the full excess mortality during the period (524). A comparable look at the Castilla la Mancha from March 15th-24th shows official COVID19 deaths accounting for 51% of the total excess mortality. (See this March 28th article in El Pais.)

Finally, The Economist notes more extensive data which L’Eco di Bergamo compiled of 82 localities in Bergamo province. In March, they logged a total excess mortality of 2,420 deaths of which only 1,140 were officially attributed to COVID19. Here the percentage captured is 47%.

These are different countries, different epidemics, different record keeping systems, all taking place in one of the most turbulent run of weeks since the Second World War. For all that chaos and variety, the consistency of this simple pattern is remarkable.


[SOURCE: Josh Marshall | TakingPointsMemo | 15 April 2020]


Thursday, 16 April 2020 at 17h 9m 19s

An example of how to educate the public

Here is the governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, giving an example of leadership during a crisis. Educate the public. Be honest with the public.



I have disagreements with some of Mr. Cuomo's actions as governor in the past, BUT he is doing the nation a great service by providing these daily info sessions to a country that is starving for leadership.


Thursday, 16 April 2020 at 16h 48m 16s

The Bay Area cases are slowly decreasing

This comes from today's San Francisco Chronicle.

BayAreaCoronaCases_1March-15April2020.jpg

[SOURCE:  | SF Chronicle | ]


Wednesday, 15 April 2020 at 20h 31m 36s

The Deficit Myth


Professor Kelton is a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at Stony Brook University, and a senior economic adviser to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Professor Kelton was recently listed by Bloomberg as “one of the 50 people who defined 2019”. Professor Kelton is a proponent of MMT, Modern Monetary Theory - a concept that proposes government deficits, that avoid inflation, can help fight a myriad of problems including inequality, poverty and unemployment, climate change, housing, and health care.




Wednesday, 15 April 2020 at 13h 21m 38s

A COVID-19 Timeline

This is from Morgan Stanley.

The managers of Trillions of dollar investment portfolio's tend to be somewhat conservative, but they are also not afflicted with "happy talk".


Tuesday, 14 April 2020 at 9h 4m 36s

Influenza 1918-1919

The great influenza epidemic occurred in 3 waves. The 2nd wave was the most deadly.

We are currently on the first wave.

[SOURCE:  | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention | ]


Tuesday, 14 April 2020 at 12h 2m 11s

Failure


Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich provides a day-by-day account of Trump’s failed response to the coronavirus crisis, and explains how the administration’s incompetence and narcissism has cost countless lives.

"We pretty much shut it down."

"Coronavirus is very much under control."

"It's going to be down to close to zero."

Trump's priority has never been public health. It's been to downplay the virus in order to boost his shot at reelection.

This is not leadership. This is the exact opposite of leadership.





Monday, 13 April 2020 at 22h 14m 46s

This is why this shit pisses me off

Trump touts his "China" ban but can't answer a question about what his administration did during February. And that "China" ban was flimsy, only banning non-citizens, meanwhile infected citizens seeded the population and spread the disease everywhere. Not to mention those coming from Europe, and the cluster-fuck that was that travel ban 30 something days later.

They actually showed the press corps a campaign video that eulogized the President's leadership on the Coronavirus crisis, thinking this would settle the matter once in for all. Obviously pesky reporters who ask good questions and state facts are just fake news. Especially if they are black and/or female.

Because ... Reporters should just say nice things.

Trump seems to think saying something into a microphone is the equivalent of events. He instinctively lies to create an alternate universe and then erupts against the Reporters who point out the obvious.

You don't get to take a victory lap because you think your spin actually bullshits the population.



Even Fox News has to speak truth ... because the 10th Amendment.



And the Feds are still ... still ... stealing supplies to states.






GOTO THE NEXT 10 COLUMNS