frankilin roosevelt

It's not about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.

Check out my old  Voice of the People page.

Gino Napoli
San Francisco, California
High School Math Teacher

Loyalty without truth
is a trail to tyranny.

a middle-aged
George Washington

1482 POSTS

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Sunday, 29 March 2020 at 12h 7m 31s

Daily SF Coronavirus cases update

The number of COVID-19 cases increased by 32, after increasing by 29, and 56 over the past 3 days. The a value is now 1.44545 and the b value is 0.166955. The trend is still 16.7% increase, doubling every 4.48 days. Which means we will probably have more than 500 cases by Wednesday, 1 April 2020.

Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:

4,268 = 3401.44545(1+0.166955)^14

12,578 = 3401.44545(1+0.166955)^21

Notice how the 2 and 3 week predictions have been jumping. The model jumped from 10,400 to nearly 12,600 in ONE DAY !!!

My aggregate exponential model (I take the integral of the derivative from 0 to double the current number of days) is indicating that at a minimum, 176,400 people will get the Coronavirus over the next 33 days in San Francisco. And this assumes we are reaching the plateau now -- a big assumption.

Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 16h 26m 18s

Mathematical Modeling

The SIR Model of disease spread. Susceptible, Infected, Recovered . S+I+R. Also Recovered does not necessarily mean alive.

Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 13h 10m 40s

GM is not responsible for governing this country

The Preznit apparently thinks grand-standing and playing politics is considered leadership in a crisis. Look how he baselessly (without substance) denegrates and insults Washington State and Michigan Governors ... because they are Democrats.

What about those private firms who are supposedly now incentivized to produce Medical supplies? The main manufacturer of swabs is in Italy, a country besieged and unable to export at the same levels as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Tests also require a lot of supplies. They require the swabs. They require reagents. They require people to administer the tests. And those people require personal protective equipment or PPE ... This ripples through our supply chain... If you have a President who is hesitent or reluctant to mobilize the Defense Production Act [that] would mandate companies to pivot and create supplies ... you know we are defenseless.

Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 10h 13m 53s

Update on SF Coronavirus cases

The b value is 0.176233 now and the a value is 1.11886. The SF Chronicle made a point that the number of cases is slowing, but it's too early to say that after one day. The percentage growth per day did drop below 0.18 to 0.176, but this trend has to continue over at least a week, especially since the a value jumped over one. I would say that the growth is stabilizing between 17.6% and 18%. We are not plateauing at all.

Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:

3,343 = 3081.118866(1+0.176233)^14

10,415 = 3081.118866(1+0.176233)^21

More than 10,400 cases by mid-April.

Friday, 27 March 2020 at 20h 17m 9s

No Responsibility

Friday, 27 March 2020 at 18h 58m 9s

I love this woman

Friday, 27 March 2020 at 14h 33m 5s

Amy Goodman daily

Top US & World Headlines -- 27 March 2020. In 15 minutes.

Friday, 27 March 2020 at 13h 2m 18s

Mississippi WTF are you doing?

Just so you know, those kids who went to New Orleans and Spring Break Florida the last 3 weeks are returning home, so these adjacent Southern States are just now beginning to approach the launch into exponential growth.

My growth model has the rate of increase in Mississippi as 27.23%, which means it is doubling every 2.87 days. My model also has the total number of cases within 2 weeks as 49,500, at least 10% of whom will need to be hospitalized. That is 4,950 people. How many total hospital beds (and workers) does Mississippi have again? (see yesterday's post -- scroll down).

[SOURCE:The Covid Tracking Project|]

So what should a good ole boy Republican Governor of Mississippi Tate Reeves do? Rescind local orders across the state from social distancing and non-essential business restrictions.

The order overrode several public-health measures that local authorities had called for. It said that "any order, rule, regulation or action by any governing body, agency or political subdivision of the state that imposes any additional freedom of movement or social distancing limitations on Essential Business or Operation, restricts scope of services or hours of operation of any Essential Business or Operation, or which will or might in any way conflict with or impede the purpose of this Executive Order is suspended and unenforceable during this COVID-19 State of Emergency."

Yummy. Because .... Mississippi is not China.

Click here for a 7 minute MSNBC segment with Tupelo, Mississippi Mayor Jason Shelton -- who btw is a Second Cousin of mine.

Because posturing and tossing out cute jingoistic phrases shows ... Leadership ???

Here is Florida's growth model.

Notice that both Florida and Mississippi have large a values. Mississippi is 11.16 and Florida is 8.16. You compare the a value with whatever the dataset's initial value is when x = 0, which for Mississippi is 1 and Florida is 2. Hence 1 out 11.16 and 2 out of 8.16. That means only 24.4% of cases in Florida and 8.9% of cases in Mississippi have been statistically identified by the model. Florida also has an b value of .256855, or 25.68% rate of increase, doubling every 3.03 days.

Be glad you live in California, where public officials listen to science and experts of public health. We have a growth rate of 21% right now, doubling every 3.63 days, however that a value of of 36.9 is not measured against an initial value (when x = 0) of 1 but 43. 36.9 is less than 43, not more, so its 43 out of 36.9, greater than 100%. This implies a 9.3% decrease in the trend ( 1 minus 36.9/43). The model indicates that the state policy of Tracking and testing with "shelter in place" enforcement is having an beneficial effect.

Friday, 27 March 2020 at 9h 10m 37s

Latest SF Coronavirus update from the SF Dept of Public Health

Now the a value is 0.97822 and the b value is 0.181216. The a value going under 1.0 indicates the model is capturing the exponential growth. Notice that we are already over 18%.

Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:

2,809 = 2790.97822(1+0.181216)^14

9,014 = 2790.97822(1+0.181216)^21

Looks like we will have more than 10,000 cases by mid-April.

Thursday, 26 March 2020 at 18h 40m 53s

I love Seth Meyers