about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.
Top US & World Headlines -- 27 March 2020. In 15 minutes.
Friday, 27 March 2020 at 13h 2m 18s
Mississippi WTF are you doing?
Just so you know, those kids who went to New Orleans and Spring Break Florida the last 3 weeks are returning home, so these adjacent Southern States are just now beginning to approach the launch into exponential growth.
My growth model has the rate of increase in Mississippi as 27.23%, which means it is doubling every 2.87 days. My model also has the total number of cases within 2 weeks as 49,500, at least 10% of whom will need to be hospitalized. That is 4,950 people. How many total hospital beds (and workers) does Mississippi have again? (see yesterday's post -- scroll down).
The order overrode several public-health measures that local authorities had called for. It said that "any order, rule, regulation or action by any governing body, agency or political subdivision of the state that imposes any additional freedom of movement or social distancing limitations on Essential Business or Operation, restricts scope of services or hours of operation of any Essential Business or Operation, or which will or might in any way conflict with or impede the purpose of this Executive Order is suspended and unenforceable during this COVID-19 State of Emergency."
Because posturing and tossing out cute jingoistic phrases shows ... Leadership ???
Here is Florida's growth model.
Notice that both Florida and Mississippi have large a values. Mississippi is 11.16 and Florida is 8.16. You compare the a value with whatever the dataset's initial value is when x = 0, which for Mississippi is 1 and Florida is 2. Hence 1 out 11.16 and 2 out of 8.16. That means only 24.4% of cases in Florida and 8.9% of cases in Mississippi have been statistically identified by the model. Florida also has an b value of .256855, or 25.68% rate of increase, doubling every 3.03 days.
Be glad you live in California, where public officials listen to science and experts of public health. We have a growth rate of 21% right now, doubling every 3.63 days, however that a value of of 36.9 is not measured against an initial value (when x = 0) of 1 but 43. 36.9 is less than 43, not more, so its 43 out of 36.9, greater than 100%. This implies a 9.3% decrease in the trend ( 1 minus 36.9/43). The model indicates that the state policy of Tracking and testing with "shelter in place" enforcement is having an beneficial effect.
Friday, 27 March 2020 at 9h 10m 37s
Latest SF Coronavirus update from the SF Dept of Public Health
Now the a value is 0.97822 and the b value is 0.181216. The a value going under 1.0 indicates the model is capturing the exponential growth. Notice that we are already over 18%.
Here are the model's 14 and 21 day predictions:
2,809 = 279×0.97822×(1+0.181216)^14
9,014 = 279×0.97822×(1+0.181216)^21
Looks like we will have more than 10,000 cases by mid-April.
We are doubling every 2 or 3 days now. Imagine what happens when all those kids and people from Florida and New Orleans bring this virus back all throughout the mid-Western and Southern states.
You have a state like Mississippi with a town like Jackson (the state capital) of 160,000 people. If 20% of 160,000 get the virus and 10% of those who get the virus need to be hospitalized (effectively .20 times .10 or .02 of the population) that is 3,200 people. And this is a low estimate.
How many hospital beds do you think exist in Jackson, Mississippi?
According to google, the number of beds at the University of Mississippi Medical Center (in Jackson) is 722. According to a 2015 Mississippi report, there are 11,060 beds across Mississippi.
There are about 3 million people in Mississippi. Applying the same percentages above (10% of 20%, or 2% of total) you get a lower end of 60,000 people across the state in need of being hospitalized.
60,000 is more than 5 times greater than 11,060 folks.
Oh, by the way, those morons who talk about flu deaths and automobile deaths ... last year in San Jose, California, there were 54 fatal deaths from car accidents and 16 flu-related deaths in 2019. At the city of San Jose's recent City Council meeting, Deputy City Manager Kip Harness showed a powerpoint slide indicating there will likely be more than 2,000 deaths and potentially as many as 16,000 deaths in a worse case scenario from the coronavirus pandemic.
According to projections from San Jose’s Office of Emergency Management, there are actually 9,000-19,000 cases of coronavirus in Santa Clara County today.
“So, that means we have a false sense of security in terms of thinking, ‘Oh, everyone who’s tested are the only ones who are infected,'” Harkness said. “There are a large number of us walking around who are infected.”
This is why social distancing is important right now.
[SOURCE:Maggie Angst | Mercury News | 26 March 2020]
Meanwhile Herr Trump is busy strutting around (when he isn't tweeting) acting like he can re-open the country again. As if the various states are locked down because of his executive prowess. Excuse me, the country is shut down because of the state and municipal officials across the country who made difficult decisions in the interest of public safety. Trump didn't do shit. It was not up to him, thank god. All he does is have grandious happy talk about how he is the best ever, lambaste journalists who ask legitimate questions, and pat himself on the back for actions he did not make or do.
And then when someone states the obvious, that the Emperor has no clothes, he screams "Fake News."
Thursday, 26 March 2020 at 10h 45m 34s
Incompetance and Inexperience
Because the way you get "big government" off the back of the people is by dismantling it and outsourcing ("privatization") contracts to political connected private firms.
Of the 75 senior positions at the Department of Homeland Security, 20 are either vacant or filled by acting officials, including Chad F. Wolf, the acting secretary who recently was unable to tell a Senate committee how many respirators and protective face masks were available in the United States.
The National Park Service, which like many federal agencies is full of vacancies in key posts, tried this week to fill the job of a director for the national capital region after hordes of visitors flocked to see the cherry blossoms near the National Mall, creating a potential public health hazard as the coronavirus continues to spread.
At the Department of Veterans Affairs, workers are scrambling to order medical supplies on Amazon after its leaders, lacking experience in disaster responses, failed to prepare for the onslaught of patients at its medical centers.
Empty slots and high turnover have left parts of the federal government unprepared and ill equipped for what may be the largest public health crisis in a century, said numerous former and current federal officials and disaster experts.
[SOURCE:Jennifer Steinhauer and Zolan Kanno-Youngs | New York Times | 26 March 2020]
So as long as you praise or flatter Herr Trump as the unheralded "kind of smart" genius then you won't get fired.
Thursday, 26 March 2020 at 9h 28m 55s
45 new cases in San Francisco
45 new COVID-19 cases in San Francisco. The a value is 1.23972. The b value is 0.172128. Already over 17% growth per day. Doubling every 4.36 days. If the rate of increase gets to 25.9% the doubling rate will happen every 3 days.
The models current 14 and 21 day prediction of cases is as follows.
2,554 = 223×1.23972×(1+0.172128)^14
7,764 = 223×1.23972×(1+0.172128)^21
Wednesday, 25 March 2020 at 22h 44m 8s
Bernie Kicking Ass On the Senate Floor
Wednesday, 25 March 2020 at 20h 36m 19s
This. Is. Serious.
Okay dumb fucks. 15% of the people who contract this virus need hospitalization, with 5 to 10 percent needing ventilators. This virus is twice as permissible as the flu, and at least 10 times more deadly. Plus, even the "mild" cases suck : there are plenty of anecdotal stories of bad flu for 10 days or more.
So if you get just 40% of the population infected, 40% of 350 million is about 140 million people, 15% of whom will be in the hospital. That's 21 million, with upwards of 14 million who will need ventilators and probably take a month to recover. Plus, it's not just people older than 40, 50, or 60.
And that's assuming only 40% contract the virus !!! Do you get it now?
Or listen to MLB Hall-of-Fame broadcaster, San Francisco legend, Jon Miller.
Giants broadcaster Jon Miller said he and his wife, Janine, got tested for COVID-19 and are quarantining themselves as they await the results. In a Wednesday morning radio interview on KNBR, Miller said his son and son’s fiancée tested positive for the coronavirus after returning from Europe, where they were engaged. “They’re young. They’re healthy. You feel bad for them,” Miller said. “They’re just so sick. Anybody who’s been exposed to it, and you read about it, it’s a horrible thing. It’s painful and just so relentless. It never goes away, it seems like.” Jon and Janine Miller were tested Friday.
Remember all those Americans packed into the airport terminals because of the mismanaged travel ban? All those Americans went to states and municipalities across the country, a subset of which carrying the virus with them. The shocking incompetence and narcissistic hubris that allowed this to happen is astonishing.