frankilin roosevelt

It's not about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.

Check out my old  Voice of the People page.

Gino Napoli
San Francisco, California
High School Math Teacher

Loyalty without truth
is a trail to tyranny.

a middle-aged
George Washington

1480 POSTS

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Monday, 23 March 2020 at 9h 31m 19s

SF cases of Coronavirus as of 9am today

In 3 days, San Francisco positive cases of COVID-19 has been jumping 84 to 108 to 131 ... +24, +23. The doubling rate is now roughly 4.6 days right now. The euler exponential model I have been updating now has a=1.60294 and b=0.161615. This means the rate of increase per day is 16.2% and rough estimate of known cases 1/1.60294 or 62.4% of positives are known.

The models current 14 and 21 day prediction of cases is as follows.

1,710 = 131×1.60294×(1+0.161615)^14

4,880 = 131×1.60294×(1+0.161615)^21

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 15h 43m 22s

Funny Joke

Plane with 5 passengers on board: Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, The Pope and a 10-year-old schoolboy. The plane is about to crash and there are only 4 parachutes.

Trump says I need one: “I’m the smartest man in the USA and am needed to make America great again.” Takes one and jumps.

Johnson says, ‘I’m needed to sort out Britain’. He takes one and jumps.

The Pope says, ‘I need one as the world needs the Catholic Church.’ He takes one and jumps.

Angela says to the ten year old: “You can have the last parachute. I’ve lived my life, yours is only just starting.”

The 10-year-old replies: “Don’t worry, there are 2 parachutes left. The smartest man in the USA took my school bag.”’

hat tip to digby

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 13h 1m 31s

Total number of possible cases within 2 times 60 days

Another calculation that can be done involves estimating the total number of cases possible. This involves taking the integral of the euler's exponential growth model and a Gaussian distribution model:



I will be using the regression model data for San Francisco using the growth model, and use the distribution model to estimate the potential sum of positive cases assuming a 60 day infectious period initially, or double the current number cases as this analysis progressives. We can assume this growth model peaks and then decreases (like a bell curve)

What the Area is underneath that curve is the same thing as the total number of cases that the statistical data portends. One way to do this is to use the Euler model and sum up to the peak and then just double that. This assumes symmetry, and isn't the same thing as using the Gaussian model, so it's more of an upper estimate, but is also a lot easier -- and once you get to the peak you can use the peak to get a better estimate.

Assuming the peak is in 60 days from 25 February 2020 (or April 25th) ... the model calculates that in San Francisco, 211,288 people will be infected -- with anywhere from 10,000 to 21,000 or more needing to be hospitalized and put on ventilators.

If I do the same thing, but instead of using 60 days, I just double the current number of days (26) since 25 February, the model predicts only 64,543 people will be infected, which is still anywhere from 3,000 to 6,500 people needing to be in a hospital hooked up to ventilators over the next 104 days.

Click here for the Desmos model I am using

Yes. This. Is. Fucking. Serious.

An explanation by Dr. John Campbell on the nature of transmissible disease from an antigen to which humans have no antibodies because we have had no previous exposure. The whole point of vaccines is to give us the antibodies without having to experience the disease.

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 11h 45m 46s

60 minutes episode

This is from 13 November 2011

Steve Kroft reports that members of Congress can legally trade stock based on non-public information from Capitol Hill.

Some things don't change. Read about the Credit Mobilier scandal in 1872.

The Crédit Mobilier scandal of 1867, which came to public attention in 1872, was a two-part fraud by the Union Pacific Railroad and the Crédit Mobilier of America construction company in the building of the eastern portion of the First Transcontinental Railroad. First, a fraudulent company, Crédit Mobilier, was created by Union Pacific executives to greatly inflate construction costs. Though the railroad cost only $50 million to build, Crédit Mobilier billed $94 million to Union Pacific, and Union Pacific executives pocketed the excess $44 million. The second part involved using part of the excess cash and $9 million in discounted stock to bribe several Washington politicians for laws and regulatory rulings favorable to the Union Pacific.

They piggy-backed a finance company on the Railroad company in order to profit on the supplies and contracts of the former company, and then bribed several congress critters to close their eyes and wax poetic statements about patriotism and good-ole American know-how and hard work and yada yada ...

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 11h 16m 38s

You don't want to get this

Even if you are highly likely to survive, the mortality rate is higher than 1%.

According to the World Health Organization-China Joint Mission on COVID-19, as of February 20, 80% of laboratory-confirmed cases were mild to moderate, 14% were severe, and 6% were critical. Just to be clear, a mild case of COVID-19 is not like a mild cold. The symptoms will still be pretty severe. Anything less than needing oxygen puts you in this category. Severe cases do need supplemental oxygen, and critical ones are defined by respiratory or multi-organ failure...

And even when a patient survives this phase, they could be left with permanent lung damage. SARS punched holes in some infected peoples' lungs, giving them a honeycomb effect, and these lesions have been seen in people affected by the novel coronavirus too. Early studies found that most people who die of the disease will do so within 14 to 19 days. And, on average, people who recover are released from the hospital after two and a half weeks. But with the most critical cases, recovery could take months. Once a patient is in the recovery period, it's possible that they could still be contagious.

[SOURCE:  Abby Tang and Emmanuel Ocbazghi | Business Insider | 19 March 2020]

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 11h 7m 56s

February 2nd to 17 March in his own words

"the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus... One of my people came up to me and said, 'Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.' That did not work out too well." Trump told the crowd. "They could not do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. ... They tried anything. ... And this is their new hoax."

-- Donald Trump at a rally in Charleston,South Carolina on 28 February 2020.

[SOURCE: Kayla Epstein | Business insider | 17 March 2020]

Click here for a video of all the untruths and bluster over 7 weeks since 2 February 2020.

Here is Sam Seder on this (along with the Senators who sold stock right after they were informed at a classified intel meeting about the seriousness of the Covid-19 outbreak)

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 10h 6m 41s

Dr. John Campbell provides valuable scientific information

Aerosol and Surface Stability of the current Coronavirus.

Sunday, 22 March 2020 at 9h 17m 59s

SF Coronavirus cases update

The San Francisco Department of Public Health now posts 105 cases of Coronavirus-19.

The a value is now 2.15328 and the b value is .148196. The rate of increase is approaching 15%.

The models current 14 and 21 day prediction of cases is as follows.

1,564 = 105×2.15328×(1+.148196)^14

4,117 = 105×2.15328×(1+.148196)^21

4,117 cases by early April.

Saturday, 21 March 2020 at 18h 58m 17s

Really now

Notice how Trump only mentions the one Democrat in the bunch, and then berates the black reporter who asks the obvious question, what about Senator Burr and Senator Loeffler and then the Donald gets all snooty saying "notice how you didn't mention Senator Feinstein" -- despite the obvious comeback that it was the Donald who didn't mention the Republican Senators himself before the black reporter asked the obvious question.

Republican North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr and Republican Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler sold a combined $2 million to $4 million in stock after attending private briefings about the coronavirus pandemic, even as they publicly amplified the Trump administration line that the virus did not pose a major threat to public health or the economy, disclosures analyzed by ProPublica and the Daily Beast show. The sales were completed before the disruption caused by widespread illness began to trigger major losses in securities markets this month.

[SOURCE: Ben Mathis-Lilley | | 20 March 2020]

And there is a third Republican, Senator Jim Inhofe. So the Donald mentions 1 out of 4, the one who is not a Republican and then berates a black women when she mentions 2 others who were Republicans?

[SOURCE: Kusi News San Diego | McKinnon Broadcasting Co. | 20 March 2020]

Even Tucker Carlson thinks “There is no greater moral crime than betraying your country in a time of crisis.”

Tucker Carlson -- btw -- was born in San Francisco 5 days after yours truly was born in San Francisco.

Saturday, 21 March 2020 at 13h 45m 52s

Blinded by hubris and short-term public relations campaigns