about being liberal or conservative anymore y'all. That is a hype offered by the fascist whores who want to confuse the people with lies while they turn this country into an aristocratic police state. Some people will say anything to attain power and money. There is no such thing as the Liberal Media, but the Corporate media is very real.
In an earlier post I used the data from Italy (which is a good example of what can happen in the Bay Area) to discern that a 19% daily rate of increase and 6.5% of current cases known is quite possible. Which means there are people walking around spreading the disease who do not realize it for 3 or more days before they start feeling the symptoms. Already San Francisco has gone from 21 to 28 to 37 in a matter of 3 days. That's called exponential growth, which can very quickly reach 1,000 depending on the underlying growth rate, which cannot be measured effectively since we very likely are only aware of 6.5% of cases (see above).
So if 37 is only 6.5% of the actual cases, that means we have 569 now. And if that increases at the rate of 1.32 (37/28) for 2 weeks, we are looking at 27,742 cases -- and this assumes the general population takes preventative actions now, because if that rate of growth expands for 3 weeks, we are looking at 193,715 cases by early April, 5% or more of whom will possibly die (at least 9,685).
[SOURCE:Ida Mojadad | San Francisco Examiner | 15 March 2020]
I know it sounds rash but I would be staying at home and not going anywhere unless you need to. No hanging out at cafe's and bars and going to restaurants, because otherwise you will be responsible for potentially spreading the virus to vulnerable populations -- in addition to yourself.
I live in a building with a lot of elderly people. We touch the same doorknobs, stairway bannisters, and use the same elevator.
Going from 21 cases on February 21 to 1,128 on February 29 ... 8 days later. 5,883 another 7 days later. 17,660 6 days later. Which means a caseload nearly 10,000 times larger than on February 21st, over a period of 3 weeks !!!!
There are (according to the worldometers website) in Italy 21,157 cases and 1,441 deaths. That is 6.8%. Out of active cases, 9% are in serious condition. Out of all current Cases that had an outcome, 42% have died.
Here is a link to Desmos where I took the above data from bullet #1 and exponentially regressed to euler's number. The B value is the percentage of increase. It's 19.1% per day which means a 1.191 growth factor. Look at that A value, 320. That's the number of people the model predicts to have been the actual number of infected people on 21 February. Hence the model says only 6.5% of all current cases have been discovered. Notice that the R squared is 99%. Statistically that means 99% of the variation can be accounted for by the passage of time alone. Holy shit.
Now I know that sounds really scary, and I admit that I myself am freaked out. However, take a deep breath. Right now in San Francisco and the Bay Area we are at February 21 on the potential exponential growth model. Since our local governments initiated school closures and cancellations of all public events for the next month, there is an outside chance that we can avoid what is happening to Italy right now. If we stay at home and go outside only if absolutely necessary, then the curve will flatten out. Because of the Bay Area's density and mild climate this virus has the potential to hit us the same way it hit Italy, with the same mortality rates.
That's why schools are closed all over the Bay Area. This is not a hoax. Unmitigated, this virus has the potential to kill 5% of the population at a minimum. 5% of 10 million is 500,000 people. Not to mention the stress on our fucked up health care system.
Saturday, 14 March 2020 at 19h 27m 29s
Mark's Daily Apple on Dairy
Click here for what Mark Sisson has to say about Dairy products. Mark is my go to source when I have questions about nutrition. His marksdailyapple blog is excellent for good nutrition advice -- as opposed the the mythology that has captured the discourse since the low-fat mantra became the standard assumption of how to be healthy and live-long.
Saturday, 14 March 2020 at 2h 57m 48s
Sean Hannity is slapped hard
Sam Seder is a blessing to our nation for providing these daily M through F discussions. Especially now with this spiraling out of control pandemic.
Sean Hannity tried his hardest to downplay the global health epidemic, but Anthony Fauci shut it down rather quickly.
Saturday, 14 March 2020 at 2h 36m 3s
He sniffs, inhales deeply while he can't answer the benign and obvious question. Notice how Trump has to insult this black women rather than ... you know... actually fucking answer the question.
He's a fucking asshole. Simple as that.
Friday, 13 March 2020 at 0h 1m 50s
How British News discuss COVID-19
CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations Dr Richard Hatchett explains the long-term dangers of the Covid-19 coronavirus - saying it's the scariest outbreak he's dealt with in his 20-year career.
There is an excellent discussion after timestamp 4:50 about why we shouldn't compare this to the flu. Mr. Hatchett thinks the mortality rate is more than 1% which is 10 times higher than the flu.
Friday, 13 March 2020 at 2h 47m 41s
My latest poem
Losing My Mind
I am fucked in the head
Now that’s not a judgement call
but you will judge me anyway
because that’s what people do
they look at someone else and instantly ascertain
the differences or defects
in order to inflate the self
and keep their own mental state floating a little longer down the stream
which becomes a river
and cavalcades with the rest of humanity down the highway of civilization
bumping up and abutting against the discombobulated masses
like hard fragile marbles
glaring at one another
while the hermetically sealed humans all project their frustrations
about the insanity of modern living
upon the other
who can be labeled beneath your assumed level of sanity
who can be pinned to a category and not seen as a soul
those drunks who always hang outside the liquor store
that manager who is an asshole to his employees
is suffering equally as much as the subset of employees who have to work 3 jobs to make ends meet
which is not making excuses for assholes and derelects
I’m just saying that there is always more to see than the obvious
and if you seek to define than you really are obsessed with confirmation bias
because definitions are weak and fungible
People use words in different ways all the time
They say “hear” when they mean “understand”
They use the word “see” when they mean the word “grasp”
and so on
Which makes you wonder
what exactly is human communication when we use words in different ways
and view the world as a microcosm of our self-justification?
Friday, 13 March 2020 at 2h 14m 49s
Berkeley professor Robert Reich on point as usual.
Friday, 13 March 2020 at 1h 49m 49s
This speech was NOT Presidential
It was confused, legally ambiguous and sprinkled with propaganda talking points.